IMO, Rugal's easily upper mid-tier this year, and may even find his way into the top tier eventually. The most important thing, is that he doesn't seem to have any really bad match ups.
(Please note, below I detail a strategy that I'm still working on. It has seemed to work effectively for me so far, but it could be because the people I've been playing with aren't used to it. So yes this is a
work in progress, but it is NOT theory fighter since I've used it in actual matches against competent players.)
On top of the improvements that PenPen already mentioned, here's another important one:
- A button Kaiser Wave releases faster now, and cancels other super fireballs, including Krauser's Kaiser Wave (this makes Rugal the ONLY character in the game who can zone Krauser...). In '98, Rugal has a sorta, okay full screen zoning game based on mixing up between held and immediately released/ A button and C button Kaiser Waves. Well in UM, the zoning game just got a lot better, and IMO it gives Rugal a very viable way to fight the zoners in the current top tier (Krauser, Ex King, Ex Geese).
- Add in the fact that a stored Kaiser Wave does close to DM damage, and you have a wicked keep away game.
- The C Kaiser Wave isn't nearly as good as the A one. Even though it moves VERY fast when released, it has a huge pause before it releases, making it easy to roll through and punish.
- IMO Rugal's Kaiser Waves may well be one of the strongest anti-Krauser strats in the game. The fact that the A Button Kaiser Wave moves slowly means that Krauser has major difficulties jumping over it without getting hit.
Here in a nutshell are the basics of the zoning game, anyone who's used Rugal in 98' will be familiar with this, but keep in mind that it's even better that it was in 98 because of the faster release (again, for the A button only).
I'll use Rugal and Krauser as an example. The lines represent the ends of the screen so yes, to be able to do this properly, you have to push Krauser to the other end of the screen, which might not be easy. Spots 1 and 2 represent certain critical spots to watch out for.
|R...S...S...

|
|U..

..

....R|
|G...O...O..

|
|A...T...T....U|
|L...1...2.....S|
- From full screen, you do a Kaiser Wave motion, and decide to do one of two things: Hold or release. If you release it immediately, there's a good chance the opponent will roll through it, but he'll be too far to do anything to you, so from there you work to push him back again. No win, no loss. Of course if he releases a fireball or super fireball, you release immediately to nullify it. If Ex Geese jumps and throws his double Shippuken, you want to delay the release such that you absorb both Shippukens, and the Kaiser Wave is below him as he lands.
- If you hold, then he'll either:
a) Sit down there and try to roll last minute (which is fine for you since in the worst case scenario he still can't touch you, in the best case scenario, he screws up and gets hit for DM damage).
b) Run forward and try to roll through. Now this is where to have to watch the two spots. Spot 1 is the distance he needs to be at to roll behind you or within grab range. If he reaches that spot you either eat or combo or get grabbed, so you want to avoid that. Spot 2 is the distance from which if you let him roll through, he can crouch C and combo you if he successfully rolls past the Kaiser Wave. It okay if he rolls from this distance, as long as you release the Kaiser Wave just as he's coming out the roll (and hit him for good damage and push him back).
So it comes down to playing chicken with the opponent the moment he runs past spot 2. I would recommend releasing the Kaiser Waves early the first 1 or 2 times, before he even gets to spot 2. Even if he rolls, you're still safe. Then the next time, you can hold it longer, and if he rolls to avoid the early release Kaiser Wave, you hit him as he comes out of the roll.
- Of course the sweet spots will change when you're talking about different characters, especially against characters who CAN jump over the Kaiser Waves. Unlike most strats, this actually seems to work BEST against Krauser, which if why I like it so much.